THE KIAMBAA BY-ELECTION AND 2022 POLITICS.


The war of political supremacy between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his DP Dr. William Ruto is far from over.

Ati Suleiman (Ruto) aligonga Goliath (Uhuru) na mawe moja tu “Daa! taaro!“ akaangusa yeye chini?😂

The narrative being peddled that Ruto gave Uhuru a beating, in the just concluded Kiambaa by-election, is as inaccurate as the hilarious Father John Pesa’s Suleiman narrative above, which we were treated to in the DP’s Sugoi home sometime back.

Let’s get one thing clear. Ruto did not floor Uhuru in Kiambaa; his UDA party only rode on the wave of a protest vote against Uhuru, by his own people. Those who voted for UDA did so because they think Uhuru’s Jubilee government has given them a raw deal, especially on the economic front; not because Ruto is a darling or a messiah to them.

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Jubilee Candidate in Kiambaa by-elecetion, Kariri njama.


It’s laughable how some people have already predicted a Ruto win in the 2022 presidential elections, following the neck-to-neck run between Jubilee and its UDA offshoot, in the just concluded Kiambaa by-election.

Let’s debunk this myth a little bit.


First; by-election results from a single constituency, in one region of the country, can never be a conclusive sample of how things pan out in a general election. It’s not scientifically practical.
A general election is too complex an exercise. It’s a different kettle of fish altogether.

Two; most of the politicians who camped in Kiambaa, campaigning for weeks, will be fighting their own fires in their respective elective territories, once the campaigns proper begin next year. What’s more, in a general election, the massive campaign resources splashed in Kiambaa will be spread so thin across the entire country.

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UDA candidate in the Kiambaa by-election Mr. John Njuguna wa Wanjiku aka Kawanjiku, ron the campaign trail. Massive campaign resources were allegedly deployed by DP Ruto’s team to ensure that Kawanjiku narrowly clinched the seat from his fiercest opponent, Jubilee’s Kariri Njama.



Three; if he was to run against a United handshake team, Ruto needs an intact Mount Kenya voting bloc for him to have any chances of winning the presidency.


Remember, even after bagging almost 💯 Central and the larger Mt Kenya region votes, Jubilee’s win against CORD in 2013 and NASA in 2017 wasn’t convincing enough. It was hotly disputed.


William Ruto knows he needs to win over 90% of both Mt Kenya and Rift Valley votes for him to have any chance of winning the 2022 presidential elections against a united handshake/BBI team.

President Uhuru and His DP Ruto during Jubilee campaigns in the runup to the 2017 elections. For him to have any chance of defeating the handshake team, which brings together former NASA principals and president Uhuru, DP Ruto Has to maintain over 90% support from both the Mount Kenya region and his Rift Valley backyard.


As things are now, the mountain voting bloc is divided. Apart from the disquiet in the Mount Kenya East bloc (which thinks it is their turn to eat at the high table), it seems there still is a sizable number of Jubilee/Uhuru diehards in the mountain region.


If the almost 50-50 run in Kiambaa is to be used as a mirror of how things will pan out in the Central Kenya region next year, then WSR has every reason to worry because he still has vast ground to cover before August 2022. And time is running out fast.


From the Kiambaa by-election, one would argue that Uhuru – and his Jubilee party- still has enough clout to claim almost half of the Mount Kenya votes and badly upset Ruto’s apple cart in the region.


Lastly, the future of Kenyan politics remains largely dependent on pre-election coalitions. There is a common saying that there are no permanent enemies in politics; only permanent interests.


If recent history is anything to go by, then we can’t rule out even the most unimaginable coalitions, which will have the potential of completely changing the dynamics of the Kenyan political landscape, just before the August 2022 general elections.


What remains obvious, hitherto, is the fact that there will be two formidable coalitions facing each other in next year’s presidential election.
There is every likelihood that one group will coalesce around Raila Odinga while the other will coalesce around William Ruto.


However, the unlikeliest coalition and mother of all shockers would be, if Raila Odinga and William Ruto somehow struck a deal to work together.

Raila Odinga and William Ruto in a past function. Ruto and Raila worked closely in ODM during the highly disputed 2007/08 general elections. In the unpredictable Kenyan politics, if it best serves their political interests, nothing will stop them from working together again.


As much as I would loathe such an eventuality, in case – God forbid – a coalition between Raila and Ruto materializes, next year’s presidential elections will be a done and dusted deal. We shall just go to the polls as a formality, as we wait to swear them in.


I am just being pragmatic. If Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta, with all the animosity shown to each other before March 2018, have been working together as “brothers” in the handshake; nothing can stop Raila Amollo Odinga and William Samoei Arap Ruto from working together.


I have said before that this is not a far fetched scenario in the highly unpredictable Kenyan political landscape. It can never be ruled out.
But who between the two can agree to play second fiddle to the other?


The other most unlikely scenario is that of Uhuru Kenyatta, the country’s C-in-C, eating humble pie and reconciling with his estranged DP.


In such a scenario, the Jubilee behemoth of 2017 might just be back, albeit under a new name, and the NASA brigade will have no option but to regroup.


In a nutshell, what I am saying is; It’s still too early to predict the winner of next year’s presidential elections.
Definitive coalitions will fully take shape by May next year. Only then can we make plausible predictions.


So, in Father John Pesa’s own words “kwa kipooole” just hold your horses’ folks… 🐎

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